Optimistic predictions of “23 million outbound US medical tourists by 2017” are unrealistic says a new report from the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions.
‘Medical Tourism: Update and Implications’, says that outbound medical travel fell by nearly 14% between 2007 and 2009 largely because of the recession. The number of Americans traveling overseas for more cost-effective surgery and other medical care fell from an estimated 750,000 in 2007 to 540,000 in 2008. That number is projected to rebound a bit in 2009 with a projected 648,000 Americans seeking care abroad. Paul Keckley of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions comments,” The prolonged US recession has had a significant impact on patients ability to afford medical care, and by extension their use of medical tourism.”
The study suggests that outbound medical travel is likely to pick up in 2010, growing an estimated 35% a year in coming years. If it grows by 35% a year, by 2017, the number could exceed 5 million. After dramatic backtracking on growth estimates made in 2007 and 2008, Keckley is understandably wary of long-term predictions. He estimates that at the very best, there could be 1.6 million outbound Americans by 2012, but then comes a long list of caveats,” Barring any tempering factors, such as supply constraints, resistance from health plans, increased domestic competition or government policies.”
The report says that medical tourism has transitioned from a cottage industry to an acceptable alternative for elective care that is safe and cost effective if coordinated by reputable health plans and providers. The emergent technologies of distance medicine combined with insurance coverage for certain low-risk procedures provide a backdrop for healthy growth in this sector.
Paul Keckley comments,” In 2010, as quality is better defined, new business models emerge, insurers, legislators and employers explore pilots and programs, health care providers become increasingly involved in coordinating care and consumers continue to test it out to explore savings. Pent-up consumer demand for elective procedures, especially outpatient dental and cosmetic procedures, will help fuel increased demand for medical tourism again. Health reform efforts in the near term will also likely contribute to medical tourism's growth, though in the long run it is difficult to assess given uncertainty about the public option, employer and individual mandates."
Among the additional key findings highlighted in the report:
* Inbound US medical tourism will see relatively slow growth to up to 561,000 travellers by 2017;although lack of reliable data means it does not attempt to put figures on intervening years
* Although several health insurers have launched medical tourism pilots as part of health benefit plans, it is yet to be determined if these pilots will be adopted on a broad scale and whether employers or patients will receive the benefits of cost savings via reduced premiums, co-payments or deductibles.
* West Virginia and Colorado both failed to pass legislation that would either require or incentivize insurers to incorporate medical tourism within their health benefits plans.
